Company Focus: Vistra Corp. (VST)

Power generation + retail electricity, with nuclear + gas exposure and multiple near-term catalysts

Sector: Utilities / Independent Power Producers
Industry: Power Generation & Retail Electricity
Exchange: NYSE
Market Profile: Large-cap / volatility-prone (energy + rate + commodity sensitivity)
Valuation Lens: Cash flow durability, hedging coverage, capacity pricing, capital allocation (buybacks), nuclear economics

Dear Stock Investigator Subscribers,

For Thursday, 2/26/26, Vistra (VST) is a name worth watching because it’s scheduled to report Q4 and full-year 2025 results and host a live call the same morning—creating a clear, time-specific catalyst that the market can react to in real time.

As of today (2/25/26), VST last traded around $175.36 (tool snapshot), so expectations and positioning going into earnings may matter for short-term moves.

What’s happening on 2/26/26 (actionable, time-specific)

• Earnings release: Vistra plans to report Q4 & FY2025 results on Thursday, Feb. 26, 2026.
• Conference call/webcast: 10:00 a.m. ET (9:00 a.m. CT).
• Earnings calendar context: VST is included in major pre-market earnings lists for 2/26/26.

Why VST is interesting right now (the “so what”)

Vistra is not just a “utility.” It operates a large, diversified generation fleet (including nuclear and natural gas) plus a retail electricity business. That combination makes its results highly tied to power pricing, hedging strategy, regulatory/tax factors (including nuclear PTC mechanics), and capital allocation.

Two company developments in 2026 specifically sharpen investor focus:

1. Major nuclear power purchase agreements with Meta (20-year PPAs): Vistra announced agreements to provide more than 2,600 MW of zero-carbon nuclear energy, including 2,176 MW of operating generation plus 433 MW of incremental uprates across three nuclear plants in the PJM region. Purchases are expected to begin in late 2026, with additional capacity added through 2034.
2. Acquisition of Cogentrix (natural gas fleet expansion): Vistra announced an acquisition adding ~5,500 MW of net capacity across PJM, ISO New England, and ERCOT, and noted that (combined) Vistra’s generation portfolio would total approximately 50,000 MW. Vistra also described the portfolio economics using figures like ~$730/kW purchase price net of expected tax benefits and highlighted average heat rate metrics (efficiency).

Key numbers to know heading into the print (baseline context)

From Vistra’s Q3 2025 report (most recent detailed baseline before Q4):

• Q3 2025 GAAP net income: $652 million
• Q3 2025 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA: $1.581 billion
• 2025 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA guidance (narrowed): $5.7B–$5.9B
• 2026 ongoing operations adjusted EBITDA guidance (initiated): $6.8B–$7.6B
• 2025 ongoing operations adjusted free cash flow before growth (FCFbG) guidance: $3.3B–$3.5B
• 2026 FCFbG guidance: $3.925B–$4.725B
• Hedging (as of Oct. 31, 2025): ~98% of expected generation hedged for 2025, 96% for 2026, 70% for 2027
• Share count / buybacks: ~339M shares outstanding (~30% reduction vs Nov. 2021) and $2.2B remaining authorization expected to be completed by year-end 2027

Street expectations for Q4 (use carefully)

Some market calendars and outlets compile analyst consensus expectations for the quarter (figures vary by source). For example, MarketBeat lists estimates around EPS ~$2.45 and revenue ~$5.7467B for Q4 (their compilation). Treat these as consensus snapshots, not guarantees.

What investors can “act on” on 2/26/26 (without crossing into advice)

If someone wanted to be prepared for 2/26/26, here are the concrete, non-advice items to monitor:

1. Any updates to 2026 guidance (EBITDA and FCFbG ranges vs prior guidance)
2. Hedging posture (does hedge coverage change meaningfully for 2026/2027?)
3. Capital allocation commentary (pace/size of repurchases; any shift tied to acquisitions)
4. Cogentrix integration / financing details and how management frames expected returns and accretion timing
5. Meta nuclear PPA details (implementation steps, capex, timing, and how it affects nuclear economics)
6. Segment performance (Texas / East / West / Retail dynamics—especially around realized pricing and outage impacts)

Bottom line

Vistra has a clearly defined near-term catalyst (2/26 earnings + call) plus two major strategic narratives (large gas fleet acquisition + long-dated nuclear PPAs). The market reaction will likely depend less on “beat/miss” headlines and more on forward guidance, hedging updates, and management’s framing of cash flow durability.

Important note

This article is for informational and educational purposes only and reflects publicly available information. It is not investment, legal, or tax advice, and it does not recommend any specific action. Readers should verify all information directly from primary sources and consider their own risk tolerance before making decisions.

Sources

Vistra — “To Report Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results on Feb. 26” (date + call time)
https://investor.vistracorp.com/2026-01-23-Vistra-to-Report-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2025-Results-on-Feb-26

Vistra — “Reports Third Quarter 2025 Results, Narrows 2025 Guidance, and Initiates 2026 Guidance” (guidance, hedging, buybacks, Q3 metrics)
https://investor.vistracorp.com/2025-11-06-Vistra-Reports-Third-Quarter-2025-Results%2C-Narrows-2025-Guidance%2C-and-Initiates-2026-Guidance

Vistra — “Adds… Generation Portfolio with Acquisition of Cogentrix” (capacity added, portfolio scale, deal framing)
https://investor.vistracorp.com/2026-01-05-Vistra-Adds-to-its-Industry-Leading-Generation-Portfolio-with-Acquisition-of-Cogentrix

Vistra — “Vistra and Meta Announce Agreements…” (2,600+ MW nuclear PPAs and details)
https://investor.vistracorp.com/2026-01-09-Vistra-and-Meta-Announce-Agreements-to-Support-Nuclear-Plants-in-PJM-and-Add-New-Nuclear-Generation-to-the-Grid

NASDAQ — Pre-market earnings list for 2/26/26 (includes VST)
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/pre-market-earnings-report-february-26-2026-ry-td-cm-wbd-sre-vst-argx-lng-peg-bidu-onc-eme

MarketBeat — VST “expected to announce earnings” compilation (example consensus snapshot)
https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/vistra-vst-expected-to-announce-earnings-on-thursday-2026-02-19/

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